For weeks, the entire punditry universe has been gradually awakening to the growing probability of an Obama landslide Nov. 4.
Our old pal Nate Silver now figures the most likely outcome is a 361-177 Obama win in the Electoral College (and a 96% chance overall of an Obama victory), while Pollster moved up its estimate today to 333-155, with 50 toss-ups (reflecting a shift of Virginia from "toss-up" to "Obama lean."
But CNN remained stubbornly defiant. Like an annoying sportscaster who doesn't want you to change the channel from a blow-out, CNN's online electoral college predictor remained frozen in amber, with Obama stuck at 264 EVs.
Until today.
There was no fanfare, no public announcement of a great turning point in the election. Some web tech down in the bowels of the CNN Center in Atlanta must've simply received an e-mail instructing him to flip Virginia from toss-up yellow to Obama blue.
And 264 becomes... drumroll please... 277. And as quietly as a mouse, CNN officially predicts an Obama victory on November 4.
Poor CNN... they really did hang in there as long as they could. But when you're looking at this, reality must eventually intrude... even if you are CNN:
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Of course, not to be a nag or anything, but do you think John King & Co. checked out this little number?
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Hmm... Florida's still a toss-up, sez CNN. Guess not. Ohio, maybe?
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Nope, guess Ohio's still all tossed up to CNN. But with Obama's lead at a mere 4.3 points, I guess I'll cut them a bit of slack here.
Surely they won't do the same with Colorado, not with the polls looking like this...
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Oh. I suppose a 7-point composite lead might constitute a whopping advantage in the universe you and I inhabit, but to those Serious Professional Journalists Who Do This For A Living, it qualifies as "too close to call." Guess you learn something every day.
Memo to "The Best Political Team on Television":
You might want to revisit your state-by-state projections, m'kay? Or are y'all still going on about how the New England Patriots are just going to kill the rest of the NFL this year?
But I'm being way too sarcastic for such a historic moment.
Congratulations, guys, on joining the rest of the known universe in waking up to the likelihood of an Obama victory in three weeks. We're glad you could join us all here in reality.
UPDATE: I guess they're making fanfare now. Now headlining CNN's Political Ticker: "Big change in CNN's electoral map"...
For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map shows Democrat Barack Obama moving over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from "tossup" to "lean Obama." North Dakota moves from "safe McCain" to "lean McCain," and New Jersey moves from "lean Obama" to "safe Obama."
As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.
But it wouldn't be CNN without this outstanding punditry:
"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said [CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan] Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."
Whatever would we do without CNN's insightful political analysis?
UPDATE #2: Thanks to commenter crispycreme, who notes that Wolf Blitzer & Co. made a dramatic fuss about this on CNN a little while ago when they flipped Virginia. To which I'll say two things:
- I am operating under wingnut commentator rules (commonly known as "The Corner Rules") -- if I say something, it becomes reality. My "quiet as a mouse" statement stands, dammit.
- Note to self: Whine to the facilities department again about getting TV in office.